About BQ Buffer

BQ Buffer is a small, free tool for masters marathoners sitting a few minutes under their Boston qualifying standard and wondering whether it's enough.

How the estimate works

The cutoff depends on three things: how many runners qualify, how many of them apply, and how many bibs the BAA hands out. We can't see applications, so we track the first and assume the second holds steady.

Each month we count Boston qualifiers at major races and compare to the same races last year. If qualifiers are up 5%, we expect applicants up about 5%. We then use thirteen years of BAA data on how applicants are spread by buffer (most sit within a few minutes of their standard, and the crowd thins the further under you get) to find the buffer where the field fills at 24,630 bibs.

Early in the season the estimate swings with every big race and the weather. By late June, after Boston, London and Grandma's, it settles to within about a minute. The one thing it can't predict is the BAA changing the bib count: 1,000 bibs moves the cutoff 37 seconds.

The 2028 cutoff watch on the calculator page is a BQ Buffer estimate, not official.

Running a BQ only earns you the right to apply. Since 2024, the B.A.A. has turned away 8,000–12,000 qualifiers a year. Your buffer, meaning how far under the standard you ran, is what decides it.

Everything here comes from public sources (see Data sources). We label every estimate as an estimate.